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Crude Oil Price Forecasts

4Q 2019 –

  • Despite deeper OPEC and partner (OPEC+) production cuts entering 2020, which are modeled to be extended through the end of the year, BTU Analytics still forecasts global liquids markets to be oversupplied for the majority of 2020. Recently, significant production outages in Libya have been overshadowed by the threat to Chinese crude demand posed by the spread of the coronavirus. BTU Analytics forecasts this pressure on crude pricing to continue, with momentary increases in pricing driven by OPEC+ announcements to deepen or extend production cuts from the current agreement.
  • New pipeline projects set to deliver increased crude from Canada into the Rockies are forecast to widen differentials due to a mismatch in timing with new outbound pipeline projects from the Rockies. This widening is expected to be short-lived, as inbound projects to the Rockies are expected to come online in late-1Q 2020, with outbound projects expected by mid-2Q 2020.

 

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