BTU Analytics expects natural gas production for the lower 48 to show an increase of 0.2 Bcf/d month-over-month when the EIA releases its update tomorrow (August 29, 2014) for June 2014 production. Utilizing pipeline flow data from Genscape and a simple regression model, BTU Analytics can estimate the EIA-914 release with 97% accuracy. Combining the regression model with a deeper analysis of Texas, BTU can improve that accuracy even further.
The growth in June was primarily driven by the Marcellus & Utica which are categorized as “Other States” in the EIA-914 release. The balance of the country showed flat production in aggregate as declines in Louisiana (Haynesville) production were offset by associated gas production growth in Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma.
BTU Analytics estimates that Natural Gas production continued its advance in July & August increasing 0.4 Bcf/d per month to a total of 80 Bcf/d of gross natural production for the lower 48 in August.
Update: August 30, 2014
The EIA 914 update showed 0.5 Bcf/d increase in production for June. The miss in the BTU Analytics forecast was driven by the “Other States” category. Natural gas pipeline data indicated the “Other States” category grew 0.2 Bcf/d versus the EIA estimate of growth of 0.4 Bcf/d for June 2014. EIA data also indicated flat production in Louisiana compared to the sample of pipeline receipts declining by 0.16 Bcf/d. BTU expects production to continue to show strong growth through the balance of 2014 as production in Texas continues to ramp up pressuring natural gas prices throughout the winter.