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How Does BTU Analyze the Northeast?

When discussing natural gas, inevitably the conversation will gravitate towards the Northeast, the Marcellus and Utica, and where one’s thoughts lie around the plethora of opportunities (see: challenges) in producing and selling gas within and around the region.  When does Rover come online, will new pipelines fill quickly or over time, what type curve should I use when forecasting production, do we continue to see technological breakthroughs thus increasing IPs or decreasing well costs, will we ever get a new pipeline into New England?  Answers to these questions are all debatable and require a rigorous approach to the analysis and variables involved that is both highly transparent and easily digestible.

To answer these questions, BTU publishes monthly and quarterly analysis through our Northeast Gas Outlook service.  Seeing as there has been some confusion lately, it’s worth pointing out that our Northeast Gas Outlook is a paid service (we offer numerous others if the Northeast isn’t your thing).  On a monthly basis, we’re updating our clients on any changes in our expectations for in-service dates of greenfield pipelines and also our corresponding production view.  On a quarterly basis we dive into our supply / demand outlook, basis forecasts, regional and operator breakevens, regional flow dynamics, and then highlight specific dynamics that are currently effecting the natural gas market and analyze them through multi-page “Spotlight” sections.  Often identified as the most valuable section of our services, the Spotlight sections provide clients with timely analysis on what matters now, and what will matter in the next 12 months. Past topics of our Spotlight sections have included:

Q1 2017

  • Rover Timing and Ramification on Markets (7 pages)
  • Production Growth Expected to be Slower with the Exhaustion of Backlog (2 pages)

Q4 2016

  • Assessing the Impact of Project Risk: Cutting Greenfield Capacity in Half (5 pages)
  • Drilling Activity Has Increased but Must Continue as Backlog Depletes (1 page)

Q3 2016

  • Appalachian Drilling Rebound Needed as Backlog Depletes (5 pages)
  • Natural Gas Power Additions Set to Surpass Current Coal Generation (2 pages)

Q2 2016

  • Changing Transco Flow Dynamics (4 pages)
  • Effects of Current and Future Pipeline Variable Costs on NE Basis (3 pages)
  • Dry Utica Economics (2 pages)

Q1 2016

  • Natural Gas S/D Balance Impacted by Associated Gas and Pipe Delays (3 pages)
  • Production Potential from DUCs and COBs by Breakeven (2 pages)
  • Determining the Risk of Pipeline Project Delays in Appalachia (2 pages)

If any of the above sounds like something you wish you had more information on, just click on the link below, fill out the form, and we will be happy to discuss any of our services and subscription options that are available for your company.


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Mason Ender is a partner at BTU Analytics, LLC and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to joining BTU Analytics, he was the Manager of Sales for Bentek Energy, a division of Platts. Mason has worked with energy companies both domestically and internationally to implement effective fundamental energy analytic solutions. Mason also routinely presents energy market dynamics informing the market of upcoming risks and opportunities.

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