Northeast market dynamics are rapidly changing and have prompted BTU to release analysis on a monthly basis to support our more robust quarterly publication. One of the more interesting stories continues to be pipeline development timetables and the ability of the public to affect them. Through the FERC comment process, individuals can delay projects for weeks, months, and even years depending on their tact and timing. FERC is required to respond to these comments individually before progress can be made in the process and some comments require more work than others. In order to lengthen the process as much as possible, some groups have even developed blue prints that take supporters through a step by step process resulting in a comment that requires the most work by FERC to provide a response. Tracking these comments is just one way that BTU is developing our “BTU In-Service Dates” for major greenfield pipelines and is also something we’re displaying in the monthly supplement included in our Northeast Gas Quarterly service.
**BTU Analytics’ Matthew Hoza will be a guest speaker on a Baird hosted conference call on 10/19 to discuss possible infrastructure impacts as a result of organized fossil fuel opposition – click here to register for the call **
Obvious effects of possible delays and/or cancellations of Northeast evacuation projects are upon producers and Northeast production growth. At this point, we can get very granular (who owns what capacity on what project and how does a delay or cancellation reflect on their overall portfolio), or stay macro (no new pipe equals how much less gas), BTU’s Northeast Gas Quarterly service does both.
As noted in a previous article, a leader of the Dakota Access Pipeline opposition said that Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) and Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) were the next targets on their mission to restrict fossil fuel production and consumption. From the chart above, we can clearly see that PennEast has become public (anti-fossil fuel public that is) enemy number one, while projects like Atlantic Sunrise and NEXUS are facing headwinds surrounding re-routing. No projects can be taken for granted these days, so what happens if these groups are successful and manage to permanently delay the construction of major projects, what would that do to BTU’s Appalachian production forecast through 2020 and how would producers who signed up on the projects be effected (beyond the obvious)? These dynamics are among the many that prompted BTU to begin publishing this new monthly component to our Northeast Gas Quarterly service.
If you would like to receive a free copy of the first Monthly Northeast Update, click HERE and complete the form at the bottom of the page.