GETTING TO THE GULF
Can We Supply Wave 2 LNG?
As the US natural gas market eagerly awaits demand from the more than 35 Bcf/d of proposed new LNG export facilities, BTU Analytics took a step back to see how, or in some cases if, the industry can actually supply Gulf Coast Wave 2 LNG exports in this 85-page, Getting to the Gulf study.
A sample of the Key Takeaways includes:
- With current gas pipeline infrastructure, the Marcellus and Rockies cannot meaningfully supply Wave 2 LNG
- Wave 2 facilities could significantly increase the price of Henry Hub, threatening gas demand including LNG export economics
- Assuming a moderately bullish LNG export scenario necessitates building greenfield infrastructure
- Near Gulf Coast sources of supply, including the Haynesville, Barnett, and Dry Eagle Ford stand to benefit most from Wave 2.
- Going forward, Gulf Coast consumers will have to reach further back into supply areas for gas
- Wave 2 facilities are expected to have higher costs associated with aggregating new supply or less consistent utilization as compared to current utilization of Wave 1 facilities.
This 85-page study includes a look into current gulf coast and LNG market dynamics, BTU’s ranking of Tier A, Tier B and Unlikely LNG export projects along with criteria that led us to each, analysis on options to supply Wave 2 LNG including necessary midstream to connect producing basins, cost projections to build greenfield pipeline, and analysis outlining the most advantaged and disadvantaged basins and proposed LNG export projects.