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Crude Oil Price Forecasts


3Q 2019 –

  • With most US gas demand growth concentrated on the US Gulf Coast, the constrained North to South Louisiana pipeline corridor is increasingly important in the overall US gas market. Pipeline projects to debottleneck North to South Louisiana are not expected until 2021, at the earliest, leaving little space for incremental molecules to move to the Gulf Coast to serve new demand.
  • Gulf Coast Express entered service on September 25; the new pipeline was expected to provide relief for weak Permian pricing, but relief was short-lived as the pipeline filled to capacity within the first week of service. With Gulf Coast Express full, gas pipeline constraints persist in the Permian, putting downward pressure on Permian pricing until the next long-haul pipeline is expected to come online in early 2021.
  • Storage utilization across the US is high heading into winter. If winter demand is strong and withdrawals from storage are high, regional pricing could see additional strength. NOAA is forecasting a warmer than average winter, however, which could put downward pressure on pricing given current storage levels.


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